The NFL Draft is two weeks old and one statistic comes to mind immediately: for the ninth time in the past thirteen years, a Quarterback was selected #1 overall (Georgia’s Matthew Stafford to the Detroit Lions).
Okay so we all know that QB is the “most important position on the field“, but still, how come teams are so willing to spend -every year- such crazy guaranteed money (with an increase of roughly 25% from one year to the next) to a young gun who has never attemped a single pass in the Pros.
The reason this is crazy is -and History shows it- because about 50% of these high pick QBs will end up beeing(unforgetable) busts. The list is endless and you have to look no further than Tim Couch (1999, Browns) or even closer to us, David Carr (2002, Texans), to remind yourself of what a useless selection these players turned out to be, despite the hefty contracts… Not that they were not talented (they must have been since teams’ scouting dpts spent countless hours and all came to the conclusion that these guys were the highest rated players on the board in these particular years, and scouts can’t all be wrong can they?)…it just happened that for various reasons, it did not click.
Even more recent, Alex Smith (2005, 49ers) is on a very short leash entering his fifth year and having not played in two seasons because of injuries. No one ever questionned Smith’s talent and commitment coming out of Utah..but a new offensive coordinator every year, an absolutely atrocious offensive line which could not protect anyone and zero weapons to throw to, coupled with severe elbow injuries have slowed his development and put a big question mark on his career. Five years later, and despite the fact that Alex Smith is only turning 25 next week, a lot of people already consider him a major bust. not fair, but NFL stands for “Not For Long” and if you don’t get the job done real quick, you’re out of it.
This is the price to pay when you are awarded such stupid money from the get go. In the case of Smith, he received a then record $24M in guaranteed money at the unbelievably young age of 20 years old. Five year later, the exponential increase in money guaranteed to the top pick has propelled new Lion Matthew Stafford to receive $41,7M.
For the record, this was the 17th time in the last 40 years that a QB was taken with the first pick: Stafford could be the next Troy Aikman (1989, Cowboys), or the next Jeff George (1990, Colts), or, even worse, the next Michael Vick (2001, Falcons).
In the 73 prior drafts, only three guys selected first went on to Rookie of the Year honors, none of them QBs. 12 overall number-ones earned Hall of Fame busts in Canton – Terry Bradshaw (1970), John Elway (1983), and Aikman, the three QBs to achieve the honor.
And whilst it makes perfect sense that bad teams such as the Lions start off their entire rebuilding process with a “franchise QB” as the first piece to the puzzle, the financial commitment is so disproportionated with what the player will effectively give back to the team in terms of playing time & results that something is very wrong here. Last year, Matt Ryan, the rookie phenom from Atlanta who was the #3 pick out of Boston College, was the first to recognise “my rookie money is crazy…but what can I do about it? this is how things are done”.
Now is about time that the NFL decides and settles on rookie salaries so that agents get out of the way using all the leverage power they currently have forcing teams to sign insane rookie contracts and thus taking away big chunks of salary cap money for teams to spend on the other 52 players that make a roster. Because in the end, you can have the most talented rookie QB in the world on your roster…if you have no money left to spend on a great supporting cast, than you actually have nothing, really, and your “investment/project” franchise QB will go south in a hurry. This is what happened to Carr: despite the obvious talent and all the physical tools, the other players around him were not very good and he failed at his mission whilst beeing the most sacked QB in the NFL three years in a row (and setting a league record for this…) ; This shows that one individual cannot win by himself in this league, even if that one individual is a hotshot QB.
Selecting a QB #1 overall is, I believe, the right thing to do (unless another player at another position is the next Jerry Rice or the next Ray Lewis or the next John Hannah). If not, than they are not worthy of such lofty status (and the money that goes with it). This money is absolutely insane and makes no sense, nowadays, in this day and age where players are free to leave after their initial contract or when teams give up on them after just three years. There needs to be a regulation of some sort, propelled by the commissioner and the NFLPA’s director, to make rookie salaries the way they should be.
Then, and maybe just then, will teams allow themselves more time to groom and develop their #1 pick quarterbacks and give them the necessary time they need to become the franchise saviours everyone expects them to be. And if so, maybe the ratio (boom/bust) for #1 overall pick quarterbacks will go down from 50% to 25-30%, which would surely please the teams holding the #1 selection in next years’ drafts.
Tags: 49ers, Alex Smith, Boston College, Browns, Canton, Colts, Cowboys, David Carr, Draft, Falcons, Hall of Fame, Jeff George, Jerry Rice, John Elway, John Hannah, Lions, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Michael Vick, Ray Lewis, signing bonus, Terry Bradshaw, Texans, Tim Couch, Troy Aikman
